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Now that Sophie Scamps has been re-elected with a pretty healthy swing to her, and several local promises she’s campaigned on coming to fruition (Mona Vale Road funding and de-privatisation of the Northern Beaches Hospital), I doubt she loses.
@ CJ
I think it is very fortunate that St Ives did not get moved into this seat. St Ives has a large Jewish community and Sophie Scamps comments on Gaza will not be will recieved. This is probably the least diverse of the Teal seats.
Yeah St Ives being moved into the seat would’ve tanked Scamps. She was quite literally one of the first to criticise Israel for its conduct in Gaza.
Yeah it’s a pretty non-diverse seat, although there are pockets of CALD backgrounds in areas like Narraweena and Dee Why for example; Dee Why having a fairly big Asian population, and Narraweena/Beacon Hill having a notable Polynesian population.
Once you move further north, it becomes less diverse.
The further north you go (along the Northern Beaches), the older the population is and the more likely people own their own homes. The highest vote for Sophie Scamps is in Avalon Beach and Bilgola Plateau all the way north.
Scamps did best in the north and south. In between she had either average or below average results.
A curious result in the seat is the Collaroy North booth, which was one of just two on-the-day booths James Brown won, and was actually won by Scamps narrowly in 2022, resultant of a 6.6% swing away from Scamps.
Given the proximity of that booth to the War Vets, I’d be putting that down to Brown’s recognition as the former President of RSLNSW, and him previously serving in the military.